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[Annual Inventory] Economic, Policy, Consumption, Trade Wars...Overview of the 2018 Macro World

Release date:2019-01-02  source:上海有色金属网  author:上海有色*  Browse times:806
2018 is about to pass, first wish everyone happy New Year, here SMM deliberately summed up the important macro events at home and abroad this year to share with you.

Domestic articles

1. The Chinese economy still has downward pressure

From 1978 to 2017, China's annual GDP growth rate exceeded 9%. In the same period, the world average was only 5%, the United States was only 3%, and Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom were only 2%. Not only that, the number of poor people in China has dropped from 97.5% to 3.1%, which has contributed greatly to the world's poverty alleviation work. Therefore, we have to thank the reform and opening up. Thanks to this era, the achievements of the Chinese nation are innumerable.

Under such a background, China’s economic growth has begun to slow down. It is very normal. If a person runs for a long time, he will always be tired. Even if he is a black person, he will be tired. Therefore, we must psychologically accept the reality of economic slowdown. . Comrade Deng Xiaoping once said that "reform and opening up must be unshakable for 100 years." Now we have only walked less than half, and the road ahead is still very long.

2. China and the US monetary policy parted ways

In terms of monetary policy, the United States has been arrogant, and the Fed’s interest rate hike has brought great impact to the emerging economies. Iran, Argentina, Venezuela and other countries have experienced serious inflation this year. The United States raised interest rates four times this year. None of China followed, but instead reduced it three times. The monetary policy between the two major powers is very different, and it is determined by the national conditions of the country. Under the background of de-leverage, China's financial regulation has become more and more standardized, which has led to a sharp decline in the market dominated by non-standards. The number of loans and credits has been greatly reduced, which has made it difficult for many companies to turn around their capital flows. enterprise. Leverage and high leverage are correct, so it is very necessary to lower the bail-out. Following the US interest rate hike will only make the enterprise into more difficult situations.

3. Sino-US trade friction

Sino-US trade frictions have run through almost 2018. Trump is actually a sturdy person. His entire policy is centered on his campaign promise. His commitment during the campaign is "to make the United States great again" and "the United States has priority", so everything is not conducive to The rules and actions of the United States will be sanctioned and punished by the United States. The huge trade deficit has become the best excuse for Trump to launch a trade war. I believe that there will be an agreement between China and the United States. That is what everyone wants.

4. China's consumer market into the winter

A common view is that consumption upgrades and consumption degradation coexist in China's consumer market. This year, the property market regulation policy exceeded 400 times, refreshing the historical record. Under such intensive regulation, the property market began to gradually cool down after the second half of the year, and the seller's market began to enter the buyer's market, and the market without price became the norm. The same is true for the auto market. Car sales in the beginning of July turned negative year-on-year and continued to the present. The consumer market is obviously squeezed by the high housing prices. The public's call for tax cuts and fees has been high, and domestic demand will largely depend on the 2019 tax cuts.

Foreign articles

1. Trump 14 bombarded the Federal Reserve

The Fed is a US central bank independent of the government. Its monetary policy is not subject to government interference. Trump has crossed the thunder pool and has bombarded the Fed 14 times to express dissatisfaction with the Fed and Powell. To a certain extent, it also gives the US stock market. Brought a huge disaster. After October, the US stock market began to become weak, Trump shelled once, and US stocks plunged once. Trump became the spokesperson for US stocks, which has never been seen in history. Trump was very proud of the bull market of US stocks, and took it as a major achievement for his incumbent. In just two or three months, the US stocks were returned to their original shape, all of which retreated this year's gains, one step away from the technical bears. I don't know this time. What did Trump think?

2. Brexit

After 1 year and 6 months of arduous negotiations, on November 25th, the UK and the EU finally reached a draft of the Brexit agreement, but the draft must be approved by the British Parliament before it can take effect. The Conservative Party’s internal hard-off Europeans felt that the draft was a compromise with the EU, and they launched a Confidant Party’s vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May, and voted to save the Prime Minister’s position at 200:117. The opposition Labor Party is also a buzz on the draft. Mei has no choice but to push the voting time to mid-January. The worry of no agreement to leave the European Union has been rampant. The call for the second referendum has also been rising, but Mei still insists on not doing it twice. The referendum, if the parliament fails, all of Mei’s efforts will be lost, and voting in mid-January is crucial.

3. Italy Budget

Europeans are lazy to know that high welfare is being swallowed by the government's not rich finances. Italy's debt is second only to Greece in Europe, with debt accounting for more than 130% of GDP, and there is no way to curb debt reduction. In September, Italy announced that the budget deficit target will be set at 2.4% in the next three years. The budget has exceeded the EU's fiscal deficit standards for member states. One stone has stirred up waves and Italian financial stocks have plummeted. Banks in Spain, France and Germany. The stock also followed the plunge, and Italian government bonds and the euro also plummeted. Then the EU rejected the Italian budget in an unprecedented way and said that it might impose sanctions on Italy. The EU and Italy are in long-term negotiations. In order to avoid the huge EU sanctions, Italy set the deficit at 2.04% this month. I also accepted the Italian budget amendment.

4. French yellow vest protest movement

The yellow vest began on November 17th. It was the biggest riot in Paris in France in 50 years. The fuse was the fuel tax. These French people wearing yellow vests blocked traffic, destroyed cultural relics, set fire, and looted. Doing everything, Mark Long forced to make concessions, said that the gasoline tax was abolished, the price of gasoline and diesel stopped changing for six months, and promised that the minimum monthly salary would increase by 100 euros in 2019, but the people were still not satisfied. Many people called for Mark Long to step down. The taxation of all the just-needed goods that the people have survived has been drastically reduced. The current resistance movement is still in progress and has spread to more than 10 countries.





Key word: 宏观世界 年度 政策
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