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New Year's Day holiday domestic suspension Lun aluminum hit a new low since February last year

放大字体  缩小字体 Release date:2019-01-02  Views:201
周一伦开于1849美元/吨,开盘后震荡下探低位一度触及1830美元/吨,刷新2017年2月以来新低,伦铝低位震荡后开启反升模式,于盘末一度摸高1856美元/吨,收涨于1853美元/吨,持仓量增加8654手至65.5万手。无论是从中美关系进展还是美国经济前景来看,美元大概率将持续走弱,对于外盘属一定程度上形成支撑,但金属明显分化,伦铝长期价格对美国经济定价,因此从伦铝自身来讲预计维持弱势行情,预计今日震荡运行于1840-1875美元/吨。
国内元旦假期期间未开盘。目前从供应端来看,最近一个月电解铝行业新增减产速度明显放缓,边际减量收窄;需求端来看,据SMM调研了解下游春节前停产放假多集中在1月15-20号,消费趋弱是确定性事件,但预计1月10号左右下游会有集中一波补库;成本端来看,元旦后在氧化铝厂资金状况好转的背景下,短期预计氧化铝价格跌势放缓,但中期从全球供需格局角度出发,氧化铝仍然承压。综合来看,电解铝难言持续性上涨行情,关注今日库存变化及氧化铝价格,预计今日沪铝主力合约运行区间13435-13565元/吨,现货贴水60-20元/吨。
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